Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
